I. COMMERCIAL OVERVIEW Overview of Import Market A country of 150 million-plus people with tremendous natural and human resources is not a market which U.S. business can afford to neglect for long. Russian demand is present across the board from consumer goods to capital equipment. Foreigners, foreign products, and foreign ideas are now common in Russia today - a sharp contrast from a few years ago. U.S.-Russian trade has increased significantly. In 1993, U.S. exports to Russia were up 41%, paced by a 114% increase of U.S. manufactured goods exports. This growth has slowed recently. In the first quarter of 1994, U.S. exports were up only 23% over the same period a year earlier, in great part to a decline in the export of manufactured goods. This relative decline is attributable to large import tariff increases. There are no significant legal barriers to the import market, but there are a number of factors which discourage trade. Brief Synopsis of Commercial Environment The Russian Federation is currently a country in economic, political and social transition of comparable scope and consequence to fall of the Tsarist regime in the early part of the 20th Century. The duration and final outcome of this process are unknown. As a result, uncertainty, high risk, as well as great opportunity, characterize the commercial environment in Russia today. Doing business in Russia is not for the timid, but for the bold. Fees, import licenses, export licenses, and other government regulations are subject to frequent change - often without notice. Taxes are continually in flux and are often applied not just to profits, but also to revenue, making business operations uneconomical. A business legal system is lacking. Contract law, commercial codes, and legal enforcement of private business agreements are almost non-existent. An Executive-Parliament consensus seems to be gelling to proceed with market reforms, the liberalization of foreign trade rules and regulations and the reduction of some taxes. This consensus will be essential for the commercial environment to stabilize and improve. Russian Business Attitude Toward the United States Russian firms and customers admire U.S. technology and know- how and generally want to do business with U.S. companies. In the Russian Far East, a strong U.S. commercial presence is viewed as a positive counterbalance to other regional economic powers. Major Business Opportunities There are few products or services which are not in demand in Russia. A wide range of U.S. consumer goods manufacturers - Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola, Mars - have already made Russia a major expansion market for their companies. In many of the industrial sectors identified as priority by the Russian Government, such as oil and gas, telecommunications, aerospace, health care, mining and defense conversion, there are numerous commercial opportunities for U.S. exporters and investors. Trade finance is a key to success in this market. Major Roadblocks to Doing Business U.S. and other foreign companies operating in this market encounter major difficulties to both trade and investment, including the following: -ownership and jurisdictional disputes; -financial illiquidity of a majority of Russian firms; -lack of a normal commercial market; -absence of a commercial legal framework; -high cost and general difficulty of doing business; -severe infrastructure problems (telecom, roads, banking system, ports, etc.) -payments arrears and frozen accounts; -frequent changes in government and firm personnel; -high taxes which frequently change; -frequent changes in the import and export regime; -lack of systematic and accessible credit information; -mounting crime and corruption. Notwithstanding all of the above, business is being conducted. U.S. firms are exporting and investing. Activity at the microeconomic level is vibrant, with new goods and services appearing on the Russian market almost daily. The number of U.S. firms opening in Russia is expanding and those with the right product or service, the right local contacts, business associates and street smarts are making money. Nature of Local and Third-Country Competition Western European firms, particularly those from Germany, Italy, Austria, France and the United Kingdom offer U.S. business the most competition. Direct flights by Lufthansa from Frankfurt to the Russian Urals (Yekaterinburg) and to Siberia (Novosibirsk) have stimulated western European business interest in these parts of Russia. Norwegian and Finnish firms are active in northwest Russia and Chinese, Korean and Japanese firms are very aggressive in the Russian Far East. Better credit terms often give the advantage to western European firms. The opening of U.S. Consulates General in Vladivostok in the Russian Far East and in Yekaterinburg in the Urals will facilitate U.S. firms' ability to do business in other than the Moscow and St. Petersburg regions, and help balance the growing Chinese, Japanese and Korean commercial influence in the Far East and the German strength in central Russia. American Business Centers, to be established in St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhnevartovsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, and Chelyabinsk (and possibly another city at a later date) will also be of significant assistance to U.S. companies exploring the tremendous commercial opportunities in the Russian hinterlands.