APPENDIX B PART A Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Agricultural Exports to Poland (in thousand tons, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 1 B. Name of Sector: Poultry Meat C. PS&D Code: 53 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 382 404 427 E. Total Local Production 300 330 350 F. Total Exports 15 15 17 G. Total Imports 72 70 72 H. Total Imports from U.S. 51 50 50 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: U.S. exports in 1995 depend on the in tariff quota negotiated under GATT. The last Polish proposal was 24,000 tons of poultry meat within the tariff quota. A. Rank: 2 B. Name of Sector: Wheat C. PS&D Code: 11 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 8,258 8,950 8,950 E. Total Local Production 8,243 8,800 8,800 F. Total Exports 150 200 100 G. Total Imports 500 500 500 H. Total Imports from U.S. 100 200 200 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - A. Rank: 3 B. Name of Sector: Corn C. PS&D Code: 11 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 600 500 500 E. Total Local Production 290 250 250 F. Total Exports 0 0 0 G. Total Imports 65 250 250 H. Total Imports from U.S. 0 100 200 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART A (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Agricultural Exports to Poland (in thousand tons, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 4 B. Name of Sector: Beef, veal & offal C. PS&D Code: 52 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 473 445 435 E. Total Local Production 435 400 385 F. Total Exports 26 20 15 G. Total Imports 28 35 40 H. Total Imports from U.S. 0.5 5 5 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - ------------ * estimate ** forecast *** carcass weight equivalent APPENDIX B PART B Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 1 B. Name of Sector: Aircraft and Parts C. ITA Code: AIR 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 27 30 34 E. Total Local Production 34 37 39 F. Total Exports 29 29 31 G. Total Imports 22 24 26 H. Total Imports from U.S. 16 17 19 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: LOT Polish Airlines has been upgrading its aircraft and is now the airline with the "youngest" fleet in the world. In 1992 LOT signed a $300 million lease contract for Boeing 737 aircraft. The private end-user market is also growing. Plans for aircraft maintenance facilities are under discussion. A. Rank: 2 B. Name of Sector: Computers and Peripherals C. ITA Code: CPT 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 415 476 550 E. Total Local Production 16 21 27 F. Total Exports 9 10 11 G. Total Imports 408 465 535 H. Total Imports from U.S. 40 42 45 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: The market is expected to grow by 30,000 units per year. U.S. share of the import market is 20%. Best sales prospects are personal computers, laptops and notebooks, and some supercomputer. ----------- * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 3 B. Name of Sector: Telecommunications Equipment C. ITA Code: TEL 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 333 386 421 E. Total Local Production 53 64 51 F. Total Exports 12 13 15 G. Total Imports 291 335 385 H. Total Imports from U.S. 30 33 39 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Domestic and foreign investments continue to grow. Polish law requires that there be a minimum of 50% Polish content in telecommunication networks in Poland. Switching systems approved for Poland are AT&T, Alcatel and Siemens. Polish standards apply. A. Rank: 4 B. Name of Sector: Computer Software C. ITA Code: CSF 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 50 57 65 E. Total Local Production 19 21 24 F. Total Exports 9 10 12 G. Total Imports 40 46 53 H. Total Imports from U.S. 21 25 29 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Official statistical data for computer software is unreliable, due to this product's classification HS and the volume of illegal software. The real turnover in 1993 was estimated by the industry at $300 million, with only $50 million registered officially. Introduction of an Intellectual Property Law in 1993 covering the protection of software, dramatically changed the situation in the software market. Software introduced in Poland should be adapted to Polish packaging and marketing needs, which can be done by value-added retailers and distributors. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 5 B. Name of Sector: Household Consumer Goods C. ITA Code: HCG 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 744 750 750 E. Total Local Production 799 730 700 F. Total Exports 217 170 150 G. Total Imports 163 190 200 H. Total Imports from U.S. 7 8 8 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Imports of household consumer products have grown for several years, while local production decreased drastically the last two years. German, French, Italian products are commonly available. Growth of U.S. imports is limited by their difference from European standards, especially their construction and operation, in the case of appliances. A. Rank: 6 B. Name of Sector: Medical Equipment C. ITA Code: MED 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 243 267 291 E. Total Local Production 44 50 57 F. Total Exports 34 37 41 G. Total Imports 234 240 275 H. Total Imports from U.S. 31 35 39 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Although the public health sector is burdened by severe budgetary restrictions, funds for purchasing medical equipment are available through international financial institutions such as the World Bank and EBRD. The private medical sector is booming with small private clinics opening throughout the country at a rapid rate. A revised social security program might be introduced in 1995 which would allow patients (or clinics) to be reimbursed for medical services. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 7 B. Name of Sector: Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Equip. C. ITA Code: ACR 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 214 257 320 E. Total Local Production 47 60 80 F. Total Exports 40 50 60 G. Total Imports 210 250 300 H. Total Imports from U.S. 9 11 11 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: The demand for these products will continue growing as modern office space and residential units are built. Local production is not competitive with imported products, and new projects are constructed with imported products. A. Rank: 8 B. Name of Sector: Automotive Parts and Service Equip. C. ITA Code: APS 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 535 580 630 E. Total Local Production 368 390 400 F. Total Exports 46 50 55 G. Total Imports 213 240 285 H. Total Imports from U.S. 3 3 3 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: (HS: 8708) There is a big discrepancy between Polish and U.S. statistics for U.S. exports to Poland (U.S. shows $17 million, while Polish statistics only $2.5 million), which cannot be explained. To be consistent with production, Polish exports figures are used above. Automotive parts and components are in demand due to the growth of the market over the past four years. Forecasts estimate that in 1995, 250,000 vehicles of all types will be sold; 300,000 in 1997 and peak in 2000 with 350,000. Foreign competitors are mostly Italian and German companies. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 9 B. Name of Sector: Building Products C. ITA Code: BLD 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 1,128 1,029 1,157 E. Total Local Production 1,210 1,050 1,100 F. Total Exports 390 360 350 G. Total Imports 308 339 407 H. Total Imports from U.S. 7 9 11 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: The Polish government stopped subsidizing the housing sector, causing a dramatic drop in housing starts. The situation will improve slowly since there is 1.3 million shortfall of housing units in Poland. A. Rank: 10 B. Name of Sector: Apparel C. ITA Code: APP 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 775 850 850 E. Total Local Production 880 950 1000 F. Total Exports 370 400 450 G. Total Imports 265 300 300 H. Total Imports from U.S. 12 20 20 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Imports and exports statistics match categories, while local production is an aggregate number which does not match import/export. Most apparel imports to Poland come from: China, South Korea, India, Singapore and Hong Kong. However, more sophisticated apparel is present on the market. Joint ventures in Poland with western manufacturers are increasing. Local production is steadily growing, as well as exports. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 11 B. Name of Sector: Laboratory and Scientific Equipment C. ITA Code: LAB 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 220 242 266 E. Total Local Production 44 48 53 F. Total Exports 34 37 41 G. Total Imports 210 231 254 H. Total Imports from U.S. 31 34 37 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Poland is considered the largest market for laboratory and scientific equipment in Central Europe, foreseen to grow steadily by 10% per year. Equipment bought for scientific purposes is exempt from custom duty and taxes. A. Rank: 12 B. Name of Sector: Electrical Power Systems C. ITA Code: ELP 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 189 210 240 E. Total Local Production 123 150 160 F. Total Exports 19 20 25 G. Total Imports 85 80 105 H. Total Imports from U.S. 5 5 5 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: (HS: 8416, 8504, 8511) The Polish energy sector is in need of technologies that are environmentally safe. Most of the equipment in the power industry (boilers, turbines, generators, transformers, appliances, and accessories) was manufactured in Poland. European suppliers play a major role in the market. Domestic companies have become more competitive. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 13 B. Name of Sector: Food Processing and Packaging Equipment C. ITA Code: FPP 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 500 540 600 E. Total Local Production 150 160 180 F. Total Exports 50 55 60 G. Total Imports 400 430 475 H. Total Imports from U.S. 10 12 15 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Imports of food processing and packaging equipment should continue to grow. Polish buyers look for equipment that will upgrade the quality of their products and increase processed food exports that meet European health and sanitary standards. A. Rank: 14 B. Name of Sector: Pollution Control Equipment C. ITA Code: POL 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 251 300 330 E. Total Local Production 111 125 140 F. Total Exports 17 20 25 G. Total Imports 157 195 215 H. Total Imports from U.S. 8 8 10 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: (HS: 8421) The market for goods and services in this sector has grown steadily over the last two years. Solving air pollution problems is a priority for the Polish government. U.S. exports of pollution control equipment to Poland grew significantly in the year 1993. End-users are concerned that U.S. firms are too far away to provide adequate maintenance and service of equipment. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 15 B. Name of Sector: Furniture C. ITA Code: FUR 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 477 550 500 E. Total Local Production 757 850 900 F. Total Exports 393 450 450 G. Total Imports 113 150 150 H. Total Imports from U.S. 5 10 10 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: The Polish furniture industry is undergoing privatization. Investments and joint ventures in furniture production have been made by firms from Germany, Austria and Scandinavian countries. There is great potential for import growth of office furniture. European styles are generally preferred, but American styles are considered modern and luxurious. Local production is growing steadily. A. Rank: 16 B. Name of Sector: Sporting Goods C. ITA Code: SPT 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 115 125 137 E. Total Local Production 127 130 128 F. Total Exports 80 80 71 G. Total Imports 67 75 80 H. Total Imports from U.S. 1 2 2 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: The market for sporting goods is changing. This market depends on the development of sporting activities among Poles and their financial means. Due to the budget restriction, government expenditures for sports are far below the needs. European brands are on the market and have distribution systems. Imports have been growing steadily during last five years. Interest in U.S. sporting products is very high. ------------ * estimate ** forecast APPENDIX B PART B (Continued) Best Prospect Sectors for U.S. Industry Exports to Poland (US$ millions, unless otherwise noted) A. Rank: 17 B. Name of Sector: Industrial Process Controls C. ITA Code: PCI 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 85 89 98 E. Total Local Production 58 50 44 F. Total Exports 5 6 7 G. Total Imports 32 45 61 H. Total Imports from U.S. 1 1 2 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: Based on the harmonized code HS 9032 the overall market for these products has declined due to a drop in Polish production (in 1992 by 50%, in 1993 - by 25%.) Imports have been steadily growing (1993 by 45%), primarily from Europe (Germany, Italy, Denmark). If the trend continues the overall market will slowly grow. A. Rank: 18 B. Name of Sector: Broadcasting Equipment C. ITA Code: 1993 1994* 1995** D. Total Market Size 91 113 131 E. Total Local Production 1 1 1 F. Total Exports 0 0 0 G. Total Imports 90 112 130 H. Total Imports from U.S. 4 4 5 I. Exchange Rate 18,145 PZL - - Comments: This has become one of the best prospects for US exporters due to two factors: a development of private TV sector and a general trend in Polish TV companies towards technologies that U.S. companies are excel in, including: disk based production and post production systems, and computer graphics. The entire industry is based on imports. ------------ * estimate ** forecast