I. COMMERCIAL OVERVIEW Restored political stability, resumption of economic growth, and new measures designed to liberalize the Philippines' trade and investment regime improve the outlook for increased U.S. exports to the Philippines. Among the most positive developments during this period were a reduction in import duties, further opening of the telecommunications and banking sectors, liberalization of the foreign investment regime, and an end to the chronic power outages that dogged the country through 1993. While important challenges remain, particularly in the fiscal and balance of payments areas, most observers agree that the Philippines has turned an important corner and has potential for sustained economic recovery. Historical close bilateral ties and extensive people-to-people contacts have contributed to the United States' position as the Philippines' number one trading partner and foreign investor. Trade with the U.S. accounted for 29 percent of the Philippines' $28.97 billion total 1993 trade turnover. Reflecting improved economic growth, total Philippine imports in 1993 grew by over 21 percent to $17.7 billion. The U.S. share of this amount was about one-fifth, and consisted chiefly of electronic components, telecommunications equipment, data processing machines, and wheat. Despite a 27 percent increase in U.S. exports in 1993, Japan was the Philippines' leading supplier for the second consecutive year. The U.S. remains the Philippines' largest market, absorbing $4.9 billion in 1993, mostly electronic components, garments, and coconut oil. U.S. direct investment in the Philippines stood at $1.6 billion in 1992, largely concentrated in manufacturing and banking. American firms long- established in the Philippines are demonstrating their confidence in the future with plans for over half a billion dollars' worth of new investment in the next three years. Gradual liberalization of Philippine foreign investment regulations, including broadening and simplification of the build-operate-transfer (BOT) law and steps towards improving the Foreign Investments Act, have encouraged a growing number of U.S. companies seriously to consider the country as a new investment location. The Philippine Government is relying heavily on private sector investments, both domestic and foreign, to achieve as well as sustain a higher economic growth path. Improving the country's inadequate and unreliable infrastructure is a major focus of the Government's development initiatives under the Core Public Investment Program (CPIP). Within the CPIP, over two dozen "flagship" projects have been identified for development by the Philippine Government's Interagency Coordinating Committee. While certain projects are funded by the central government, many will require private sector financing, particularly under build- operate-transfer and similar arrangements. Many of these projects also are slated to receive funding assistance from the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, or bilateral aid programs such as Japan's Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund. The Philippine Government's current "short list" of BOT projects contains 22 specific proposals valued at $3.6 billion and covers infrastructure needs across the board, from power generation to roadways to design and construction of water supply facilities. The Philippines is generally a receptive market for U.S. products and services, and given the country's current development focus, opportunities exist for U.S. exports of telecommunications equipment and services, power generating machinery and distribution equipment, computers and peripherals, construction and building products, equipment for the tourism, hotel and restaurant industries, and environmental technologies and equipment. The U.S. also is the largest single supplier of agricultural commodities to the Philippines, accounting for about one-third of total Philippine agricultural imports. Growth will continue for wheat, soybean meal, forest products, snack foods and beef. As a result of the Uruguay Round agreement, there will be major new opportunities in 1995 for U.S. feedgrains, pork/products, poultry/products, preserved/processed meat products, and fresh vegetables. However, various groups can be expected to continue to look for ways to block or slow such imports. Non-tariff barriers, including imposition of sanitary/phytosanitary restrictions, are the most likely tools to be used to constrain imports of agricultural commodities. The Philippines has undertaken several programs since 1991 to reduce, restructure and simplify tariffs. However, notable exceptions to tariff liberalization remain, particularly with respect to imports of agricultural products. In addition, quantitative restrictions exist on more than 100 agricultural and industrial commodities for health, safety, or national security reasons. The Philippines participated in the GATT Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations, and although commitments were made to reduce tariffs in some sectors, in general the Philippine offer was limited. Overall tariff rates remain relatively high. The Philippines continues to use "home consumption value" (HCV), rather than invoice value, as the basis for assessment of import duties and taxes. The use of HCV -- valuing the goods at prices prevailing in the home country market, regardless of the actual price transacted between buyer and seller -- in some cases has resulted in arbitrary and unreasonably high valuations of U.S. exports to the Philippines. The Philippine Government has committed itself to replace HCV with an export price-based system on January 1, 1995, as a transition step to a transaction-based valuation system that will be introduced sometime within the next five years. Legislation for this transition step still has to be enacted. While other deterrents to foreign trade and investment continue to exist--including inadequate enforcement and slow adjudication of intellectual property rights, limitations on foreign investment in certain industries and activities, and customs barriers outlined above-- the current Administration under President Fidel Ramos is committed to improving the overall trade and investment climate in order to open the Philippine economy to greater foreign participation. The Philippines is acutely aware of progress made by its neighbors in this regard, and of what it must do to catch up. Traditional Philippine affinity for, and familiarity with, American business prowess give U.S. firms an advantage over other foreign competitors. Moreover, Presidents Ramos and Clinton have pledged a new partnership in U.S.-Philippine relations, founded on enhanced trade and economic ties. These factors, combined with a much-improved Philippine economic outlook, set the stage for U.S. companies to take a fresh look at the Philippines.