I. COMMERCIAL OVERVIEW EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With the signing of an agreement on an expanded European Economic Area (October 1991), the submitting of a formal application to the European Union (November 1992) and the negotiating of a membership agreement with the EU (March 1994), Norway's economy and foreign trading system are on the verge of some significant changes. In the short term (until 1995 at least), the European Economic Area agreement (EEA) will not alter significantly the trading patterns between the United States and Norway. However, the first phases of the EEA came into force at the end of 1993; and now, Norway has just succeeded in negotiating its membership agreement with the EU. If the Norwegian population approves the EU agreement in a nation-wide referendum on 28 November 1994, then Norway's economy and foreign trading patterns must change dramatically to be in sync with EU standards and regulations. (At the writing of this report, however, there are more Norwegians opposing than favoring EU membership.) These dynamic changes currently waiting to break over Norway's shores can create excellent possibilities for many American companies, while at the same time complicating some traditional commercial relationships between our two countries. THE IMPORT MARKET The bulk of imports is made up of manufacturing products; machinery and equipment, various intermediate goods, (seasonal) agricultural products and imports of other food and beverages. Total 1993 Norwegian imports stood at nearly USD 24.2 billion. COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENT The Norwegian economy remains highly dependent on foreign trade. For example, Norway's combined merchandise exports and imports account for nearly 56 percent of GDP, compared with 16 percent in the United States. Oil and gas products dominate Norway's foreign trade, representing the bulk of its exports (over 40 percent). Thus, the value of Norway's combined merchandise exports tends to fluctuate along with world oil prices, while imports depend on domestic economic activity and variations in foreign exchange rates. In terms of combined merchandise exports and imports to a single country, the United States is Norway's fourth largest trading partner after the UK, Sweden and Germany. In 1993, U.S. exports to Norway totalled USD 1.2 billion. (Based on U.S. trade data.) Taken as a trading bloc however, the EU countries remain Norway's principal commercial partner. Also, the other Nordic countries remain important trading partners. BUSINESS ATTITUDE The government supports free trade and noninterference. However, there are some limitations to this support, especially regarding areas like fisheries and agriculture, and there are some limitations based on environmental considerations. Generally, Norwegian authorities are positive toward foreign investments. There are, however, no incentives directed specifically at foreign investors. An industrial production facility placed in an underdeveloped area would be favored by local and central government bodies. The United States and Norway remain strong friends, allies, and trading partners. Norway is a key NATO member, signator of most of the significant international trade agreements and a player in the multinational scene well beyond what is expected from a country with such a small, but influential, population. Some 200 American companies have 100 percent owned subsidiaries in Norway. In addition to those with a direct presence in Norway, there are 2,617 other American companies with Norwegian companies acting as agents and/or distributors. Thus, Norway is a fertile ground for agent/distributor agreements. MAJOR BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES Special investment opportunities are found in areas of work- saving machinery (e.g. computers) because of high labor costs and also because the demand for these kind of products are growing. The government has a desire to reduce dependency on the oil and gas industry, so any manufacturing/production facility placed in other sectors would be welcomed and well received, both centrally and locally. (See following chapter for best U.S. export prospects.)