Section I COMMERCIAL OVERVIEW Overview of the Import Market The bulk of imports into Mexico are intermediate goods, which accounted for over 71 percent of all imports from January to March 1994. Imports of intermediate goods were up by 18.8 percent during the first three months of this year. Much of this was for the maquiladora industry. In the first three months of 1994, 25 percent of imports were for the in-bond industry. Capital goods imports were up 13.9 percent as of March 1994, reflecting some growth in investment after a decline in the second half of 1993. The higher rate of import growth also reflects the passage of NAFTA, which lowered tariffs on many goods. Consumer goods imports (11.4 percent of the total) grew 14.9 percent. Trends in 1994 are in sharp contrast to 1993 when intermediate goods and consumer goods imports grew only 2.5 and 1.3 percent, respectively, and capital goods imports fell 4.3 percent. Regulatory and legal changes in Mexico may be having some impact on patterns of trade. In September 1992 the government began enforcing strict quality standards and labelling requirements for certain imported products; although the rules had been on the books for several years, they had not been rigidly applied. Implementation of these product norms caused some trade disruption during the last quarter of 1992 and early 1993. In December 1992 the Government of Mexico began enforcing a statutory $50 limit on the value of products that a Mexican resident could import duty free via land. Previously, in practice, the duty free limit was $300 per person for residents entering Mexico via land transport. Since residents of the Mexican border states previously did a large part of their shopping in the United States, enforcement of the $50 per day duty-free allowance probably has marginally reduced Mexico's imports. The Mexican Foreign Trade Law allows the Mexican Government to apply safeguards against imports harmful to local industry as well as countervailing duties in the case of dumping of goods. Synopsis of the Commercial Environment Mexico is one of the top markets for U.S. exports, which in 1993 totalled 41.6 billion dollars. U.S. imports from Mexico in the same period were 39.9 billion, yielding a positive trade balance of 1.7 billion dollars. U.S. exports are expected to continue to a strong growth trend during 1994. Since the entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement in January 1994, half of all U.S. exports to Mexico were eligible for zero Mexican tariffs. These include some of the U.S. most competitive products: semiconductors and computers, machine tools, aerospace equipment, telecommunications equipment, electronic equipment, and medical devices. The majority of remaining duties have been reduced, and will continue to drop annually until complete phase-out. Within the first five years after NAFTA, two thirds of U.S. industrial exports will enter Mexico duty-free. The opportunities for U.S. service exports will benefit such industries as telecommunications services, insurance, banking, accounting, and advertising. Host Country Attitude There is a strong preference on the part of the Mexican purchaser for U.S. goods of most types. Advantages include more rapid delivery times, ease of communications, expectations for better follow-up and technical support, and familiarity with U.S. product offerings. Major Business Opportunities There are good opportunities in virtually all sectors, ranging from intermediate goods through consumer products and into the services sectors. Companies that can supply goods and services to infrastructure should stay aware of developments in Mexican port privatization, highway construction, railroad services, and water projects in particular. There will be increasing environmental activity in the border region. Nature of Competition Mexico's reforms, improved international image and roles in GATT, the OECD, and NAFTA have greatly increased the attractiveness of its marketplace. Investor and consumer confidence in an environment characterized by fiscal responsibility, sustained economic growth, and stability has increased competition for the acquisition of assets to be privatized, public tenders, major projects and even the individual consumer's preference. European and Asian competitors are expected to expand their marketing efforts in Mexico, and bilateral trade agreements with Chile, Columbia, Venezuela and others in the region are likely to play a role in market share redistribution during the next three to five years. Of all food and agricultural imports it is estimated that the U.S. holds about 80 percent of market share. For consumer-ready products the U.S. market share jumps to over 90 percent. The U.S. faces stiff competition from Canada in wheat and livestock genetics, Argentina in oilseeds and vegetable oils, and Chile in fresh fruits.