I. Commercial Overview The bonanza that German unification brought to the country's western producers came to an end in early 1992 as pent-up short- term demand in the former German Democratic Republic was satisfied and the global economic slowdown began to affect the heavily export-oriented German economy. In 1993 the bellwether automobile industry, said to account for one German job in every seven, hit its worst slump in years. The slumping economy led to the general realization that the integration of eastern Germany will be a far costlier and lengthier process than had been anticipated, and has added strain to the country's financial and social insurance systems. Tighter budgets have brought changes and proposals that would have been unthinkable even a year ago as it is accepted that there will be less largesse in the system. Nevertheless, Germany remains the largest economy in Europe and one which U.S. companies should not fail to address. Reunification has made the united Germany all the more important for U.S. exporters - what once was the eastern border of western Europe is now a potential economic powerhouse in the center of a democratic and market-oriented continent. Despite the enormous costs associated with the unification and, by German standards, the extraordinarily high level of financial debt with which the country has to cope, there are now clear signs that recovery is on the horizon. Although domestic demand is still weak, structural changes and other adjustments forced by the recession are beginning to show positive results. Many of these changes were taken against the backdrop of Germany's perennial "Standort" debate, a discussion which addresses the question whether Germany is losing its attractiveness as a location for production and investment. The proponents of the weakening "Standort" theory argue that there is a danger that companies will shift production outside Germany's borders to escape the country's high taxes, rising wages, the world's shortest work year, and diminished productivity growth. They add that the pace of technological change and global competition has made it increasingly difficult for the "Mittelstand," the medium-sized companies that are the backbone of the German economy, to keep plant and equipment at state-of- the-art levels. However, the latest economic developments, especially the moderate results of wage negotiations and increased efforts to overcome structural difficulties and dropping unit labor costs, tend to refute the perceptions of the "Standort" theorists. It is undeniable that Germany is able to attract and hold investment, witnessed by the more than two hundred U.S. companies now doing business in eastern Germany, many of whom have invested in former East German production facilities and the continued reinvestment of earnings by foreign investors in Germany. The volume of trade inquiries, the many fair exhibitors and business visitors illustrate that the German market has great appeal to U.S. businesses. The German market is, in its own right, too big to ignore for firms seriously engaged in doing business in Europe. The accident of geography also places Germany at the center of a new market-oriented Europe. While less is heard lately about Germany as a launching-pad to Eastern Europe and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, Germany's infrastructure, stability and highly qualified work force can be attractive to firms doing or planning to do business in those regions. U.S. firms find Germany a good market for innovative, high quality products in the medical/technical, computer-assisted processes, analytical and scientific, chemical, telecommunications, and fiber optic fields. The country's environmental consciousness and the crying need for remediation of many sites in eastern Germany offer U.S. companies an array of possibilities. Recent economic difficulties took the spotlight away from environmental issues. With the improvement of the overall economic performance, one can expect that these issues will surface again to the very frontline of public concern. Considered a government responsibility - at the federal, state and in some cases even municipal level - the clean-up has to be financed from public monies. Public procurement totals billions of Deutschmarks, but the inherent advantages of domestic suppliers mean that successful American bidders must pick their projects carefully and custom- tailor their offers. The ongoing privatization of the telecommunications sector and the discussion of other areas that lend themselves to privatization, such as the construction and operation of German motorways, will open up new business opportunities. Germany's reputation as an economic powerhouse that will not remain down for long seems to be confirmed by the latest economic studies; in the view of some observers, eastern Germany may well be the fastest growing economy in Europe for the next twenty years. The western German market is a wealthy one, whose population enjoys a very high standard of living. The market is normally distinguished by high savings and low inflation rates, and a remarkably strong and stable currency. To develop the market, U.S. exporters must take into account German perceptions of American suppliers and the quality of U.S. products, as well as features of the German market which may constitute hurdles to doing business. The emergence of new trading rules in the European Union will have a huge, but usually benign, impact on how U.S. companies operate in this country. While Germans, quite naturally, focused on events to the east during the past three years, the single Europe evolution has been steadily underway and will be of vast importance in this market. The movement toward a Single European Market ("der Binnenmarkt") has now grabbed the attention of Germany's producers, particularly those that have survived in the eastern states and can no longer depend on customers in eastern Europe or the former Soviet Union. The growth of the Single Market will intensify the already strong competition from third- country suppliers, especially from members of the European Union, but also from the leading non-EU industrial suppliers such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. The strongest competition is, and will remain, from German domestic enterprises or their eventual trans-European successors. This is due not only to their geographic advantage and their role as traditional suppliers to the market, but also to the average citizen's conviction that German products are simply better made than anyone else's. German consumers regard U.S. products in some cases as being of inferior quality, especially in those product areas in which Germany itself is notably strong. However, there is also a perception that U.S. quality is improving and that prices of U.S. products are more competitive than in the past. The German perception of low American product quality does not carry over into high-technology goods, in which the American talent for innovation is regarded as unsurpassed. U.S. products are well thought of where the latest cutting-edge technology is required: computer software and peripherals, advanced materials, electronic components, health care and medical devices, synthetics, and aerospace technology. Most such sales are for intermediate stages of production. Since the customer's own product depends on the quality and reliability of the inputs to the production process, the importance of price is somewhat outweighed by product dependability and supplier reliability. Intellectual property rights are a concern as a consequence of the expanding personal computer market and the spread of sophisticated software houses. Software piracy has emerged as an important question for German and U.S. software producers, the German authorities, and the European Union. It is difficult to generalize about the German market for services, or even to define it. Conditions of access vary considerably. Progress has been made in recent years to permit increased participation of foreign companies in banking and other financial services, although the insurance market is still a tough one to crack. Telecommunications services are increasingly deregulated. Franchising and direct marketing are growing businesses in Germany and offer a good opportunity to establish a presence in the market.