I. COMMERCIAL OVERVIEW (EXECUTIVE SUMMARY) Overview of Import Market: In an average year the United States has about six percent of the Danish import market as a whole which includes about four percent of Danish agricultural imports. This places us behind Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom in total sales and about the same as the Netherlands. The United States is seventh among Denmark's suppliers and first among non-European sources. Trade between the United States and Denmark was almost exactly balanced in 1992 but tipped to a deficit in favor of Denmark of about a half billion dollars in 1993. U.S. firms sell Denmark computers, medical equipment, and military equipment. Other important U.S. sales include aircraft, tobacco, plastic products and pharmaceuticals. The share of market figure noted above underestimates the U.S. commercial presence in Denmark. This is because it is based on U.S. exports to Denmark and doesn't include services or the sale in Denmark of products manufactured by U.S.-owned companies in Denmark and in third countries. We estimate that total sales of American companies in Denmark are between 5 and 6 times direct exports. One example of this is computers. American companies have the bulk of the Danish market but only 18% of Danish computer imports are from the United States. Most of the American brand computers sold in Denmark are actually imported from third countries. This pattern is repeated to a greater or lesser extent with many other products. Whether originating in the United States or elsewhere, American services and branded products reach most aspects of the average Dane's life. In addition to computers, this would include automobiles, music and film, breakfast and fast food, soft drinks, personal care items and advertising. The sale of services is another important facet of the U.S. commercial presence in Denmark. U.S. firms are a major factor in the Danish service economy especially in management consulting, accounting, and computer applications. Danish tourism to the United States is also important and has held steady at around 100,000 Danish visitors annually over the last five years. The product composition of U.S. agricultural exports to Denmark consists mainly of leaf tobacco, soybeans, almonds, seeds, raisins and prunes, canned corn, popcorn, softwood plywood, cotton lint, confectionery sunflowerseed, lemons, grapefruits, essential oils, pet food and wines. U.S. exports of consumer-ready food products to Denmark consist mostly of "shelf-stable" canned or dried food products and wines. The United States is the dominant supplier in such retail food product areas as prunes (91%), raisins (98%) almonds (81%) and confectionery sunflower seeds (53%) and holds an appreciable share of several other important retail markets. However, in total the United States is the source for only 2-3% of Denmark's overall roughly $2.0 billion in retail food imports. Brief Synopsis of Commercial environment: Denmark is a highly industrialized country with a long-standing tradition of foreign trade, political stability, an efficient and well-paid labor force, a modern infrastructure, an efficient banking sector and free capital movements. The factors deciding where importers place their orders are almost purely commercial, although cultural/historical or social ties with a long- standing trading partner may play a role. Denmark hosts about 250 American companies. Foreign investment is actively sought especially for high technology products. American companies have invested about $1.7 billion in Denmark which is close to 10% of total foreign investment. Future prospects for U.S. trade and investment in Denmark appear good. Both our exports and our sales of services are likely to improve with the four percent growth rate expected in the Danish economy this year. American companies will continue to make Denmark a part of their European strategy. Denmark has an important role as a regional sales center and as a springboard to Scandinavia and the Baltics. This role may be diluted if the other Scandinavian countries enter the EU but it is unlikely to be eliminated entirely. Denmark has many virtues as a regional distribution center and will continue to be attractive to U.S. companies. Continued investment interest in Denmark from the United States is also anticipated. In recent years, U.S. direct investment in Denmark has averaged about $65 million per year. Most of this has been spent on acquisition of well established competitive Danish companies or on expansion of existing operations. This level of investment appears likely to continue. Host Country Business Attitude Toward the United States: Denmark is a friend and ally of the United States. Close cultural ties exist including Danish immigration to the United States, large scale mutual tourism and a long history of trade. Denmark is a sizable recipient of American investment and invests almost as much in the United States as we do in Denmark. Almost all Danes speak English. Commercial law and practices in Denmark are similar to those in the United States and American companies suffer no discrimination in doing business in Denmark. There is a widespread and well received American cultural and commercial presence in Denmark and U.S. goods and services are broadly available. Major Business Opportunities: Denmark is currently in the process of modernizing and improving its infrastructure. This will create opportunities for multi-million dollar contracts for civil engineering companies. Forthcoming projects include modernization of public transportation (railroad and light rail systems), expansion of freeways, and the construction of three major tunnels and bridges. Each of the bridge and tunnel projects are valued at over three billion U.S. dollars. The first, connecting the Eastern and Western parts of Denmark across the Great Belt is in progress, and will be inaugurated in 1996/97. This will be followed by a connection between Denmark and Sweden, from Copenhagen to Malmo and, possibly (a formal Danish-German government decision is expected during 1996), a connection across the Baltic Sea from Southern Denmark to Northern Germany (the Fehmar Belt Connection). These projects offer excellent opportunities for large U.S. civil engineering and construction companies. Modernization and expansion of Kastrup airport in Copenhagen including new radar systems and an automated baggage handling system also should be of interest to U.S. companies. Other sectoral prospects are listed in section II below. U.S. firms should also give consideration to Denmark as a regional distribution center or manufacturing site to serve the broader Scandinavian market and the Baltic Republics. Denmark's small size and comparative accessibility also make it an interesting test market site. Major Roadblocks to Doing Business: Denmark is a full member of the European Union (EU) and EU tariffs are applicable on all products entering from non EU countries including the United States. Other than these tariffs, which run from 5 to 14% on industrial goods, there are no major barriers affecting trade of industrial goods and services between the United States and Denmark. Also as a consequence of EU membership, Danish agricultural trade is governed by the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The CAP includes a system of levies and duties on imported agricultural products to assure that imported products cannot be sold at levels which undermine EU support price levels. Because of the effects of the CAP, U.S. agricultural exports have declined from 18 to about 4 percent since Denmark joined the European Union in 1973. The only restricted areas for foreign investors in Denmark are arms and hydrocarbon production, aircraft ownership and the stock brokerage business. None of these restrictions are unilateral and they are not considered serious obstacles to U.S. investment. Nature of Local and Third Country Competition: General competitive factors such as price, quality, availability, and after sales service are those which determine the success of a supplier in the Danish market as in the American market. Denmark is an EU member which means that other EU members have access to the Danish market on better terms than non EU members (see above). Other than this, American suppliers suffer no competitive disadvantage in Denmark.