APPENDIX B Data on Best Prospects For Agriculture and Industry Sector Exports Wheat The United States share of total wheat imports of 1.14 million metric tons for the Bangladeshi fiscal year ending June 1993 (FY93) was 557,000 metric tons. Roughly 40 percent, of which U.S. wheat accounted for 68 percent, was imported by the private sector. U.S. wheat imports for FY94 are forecast to be slightly lower at 540,000 metric tons, but total wheat imports are expected nearly to double- -to 1.5 to 2 million tons--for FY95. U.S. exporters should be able to supply over half, if PL-480 and EEP continue to be available. Oil and Gas Exploration Bangladesh produces 732 million standard cubic feet (SCF) of natural gas per day from estimated reserves of 10.7 trillion, supplying 68 percent of Bangladesh's commercial energy. Although the outlook for significant additions to reserves is promising, there may be gas shortages by 1995. Financing from multilateral institutions for the national oil company to conduct exploration and development is limited. However, several multinationals, including two U.S. companies, are negotiating production sharing contracts with the government. This will stimulate demand for services and equipment. Cotton Of the 95,000 metric tons of cotton imported in FY93, most came from Pakistan, although medium- and long-staple cotton from Central Asia made inroads. The United States has a small market in Bangladesh for long-staple cotton, with imports for FY93 estimated at 10,000 metric tons. However, prospects for U.S. cotton are improving, with Pakistani supply problems creating opportunities for U.S. medium-staple cotton. Also, domestic per capita cloth consumption and the use of local cotton fabrics for ready-made garments are increasing. Power Bangladesh was forecast to have a firm generating capability of 2,186 megawatts (MW) and a shortfall of 40 MW off of peak demand by mid-1994. Plans call for firm generation of 4,187 megawatts by 2000. Scant progress has been made on private power projects, and donor lending to the public sector is suspended. Short-term U.S. export prospects are transformers, wooden poles, generator sets, and spare parts for turbines. If the government goes forward with private power and more gas is produced, U.S. firms will be well positioned to win projects. Telecommunications The government has a monopoly for basic urban and long-distance service. A history of bilateral financing and close dealings with foreign competitors has put U.S. firms in a weak position for its business. However, recommended reforms could create opportunities. There is a projected need for another 650,000 lines by the year 2000 which the government may not be able to meet itself. Furthermore, U.S. companies have done well in the private sector, which has been ceded the dominant role in value-added and rural services. Automated Data Processing U.S. hardware and software manufacturers dominate the competitive Bangladeshi market. The market is tiny, with 1993 U.S. exports of computer hardware and peripherals to Bangladesh of only $2.4 million. However, prospects for increasing personal computer sales are healthy. There will be significant opportunities should either the central bank and the government-owned commercial banks computerize or should the Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board install data transmission infrastructure. Aviation The main customers are the government's Biman Bangladesh Airlines and the Civil Aviation Authority. U.S. aircraft exports for 1993 were $111 million (a three-year lease of a DC-10) and parts were $7 million. Biman owns four other DC-10s, and prospects for additional future sales of parts are good. In addition, Biman plans to expand its service to New York and may be in the market for additional widebody, long-haul aircraft. However, Biman is already purchasing two Airbus mid-haul craft and may instead opt to add additional Airbuses. Textile Machinery Bangladesh's ready-made garment industry exported $1.2 billion of garments in FY93. However, Bangladesh only produces a small quantity of export-quality fabric, importing nearly all of its requirements. There are signs that textile investments may pick up. Although businessmen prefer new machinery from Japan and Europe, they believe used and reconditioned equipment from the United States could be competitive. Bangladeshi imports of all textile machinery for FY92 were $29.2 million. Fertilizer The market for U.S. fertilizer is at a low, but is expected to rebound. Privatization of imports and distribution in December 1992 increased price as a factor, with U.S. exports of fertilizer to Bangladesh declining to $2.7 million in 1993 after reaching $36.9 million in 1991. Unsustainably low prices for CIS-origin MOP also affected U.S. exports. Tunisia is the top supplier of TSP and India of SSP. Total imports between July 1993 and March 1994 included 98,000 metric tons of MOP, 97,000 metric tons of TSP, and 41,000 metric tons of SSP.